Will the Middle East Find Stability in This Century?
Looking at the history and current dynamics of the Middle East, it seems unlikely that the region will stabilize anytime soon. Many scholars, including Edwin R. Byrd (1984), suggest that the volatile nature of the area has seen different groups settle, only to be replaced by others through violent conflicts. This cyclical pattern of destruction and rebuilding does not seem to provide a path toward long-term stability based on historical examples.
Current Trends May Herald a Different Future
However, there are positive signs on the horizon. The geopolitical landscape is shifting as the United States' influence wanes, making way for a new world order where other powers are more inclined towards peaceful negotiations. This change could lead to a more stable region. If the holy books are indeed translated correctly, it may mark the dawn of a new era characterized by peace.
Will the Elimination of Israel Bring Stability?
While the elimination of Israel is proposed by some as a step towards stability, it complicates the issue. The Middle East is a complex mosaic of diverse cultures and political entities. The1990 Lebanese Civil War and the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt in 1979 are examples of positive developments. The Kurdish autonomy in Iraq and the defeat of ISIS also offer glimmers of hope. However, the inclusion of Israel in any peace negotiations could further complicate regional dynamics.
Positives and Challenges in the Middle East
Positives:
- The Lebanese Civil War ended in 1990, and Hezbollah and Israel avoid entanglements.
- Egypt has been at peace with Israel since 1973, thanks to the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.
- The Kurdish leadership in Iraq is focusing on building a better future, despite Independence being unrealistic.
- ISIS has been defeated, providing a momentary pause in the region's conflict.
- Iraqi Sunnis, Kurds, Shiites, and Christians have the potential to work together for a better future, although obstacles remain.
Challenges:
- Sectarianism continues to be a driving force. Syria is a hard case, with Sunni fanatics losing control of their regions twice. The current focus should be on avoiding future sectarian conflicts.
- The Kurdish situation in Syria and their autonomy, which Turkey opposes, could play a significant role in regional stability.
- The Ottoman legacy, with its arbitrary border drawings and sectarian divisions, continues to influence the region, particularly through maps like the Sykes-Picot agreement and Iraq's history.
Towards a New Era of Peace and Cooperation
Despite the challenges, there is hope for a more peaceful future. The recent history of bloodshed may lead to greater introspection and a shift towards more cooperative and non-violent solutions. This transformation is not without precedent; it took several decades for Western Europeans to cease their mutual hostilities. Similarly, the Middle East may need time to heal and find common ground.
The Middle East's journey toward stability is not linear but marked by significant ups and downs. While the path ahead is fraught with challenges, the recent positive developments and shifts in global power dynamics offer reason for cautious optimism.