Will Tony Abbott Challenge Malcolm Turnbull Again for Leadership?
No, not even he would be that stupid! This is August 2017, and the political landscape in Australia is evolving. Current polls suggest that Malcolm Turnbull leads Bill Shorten as the preferred Prime Minister, while the Coalition as a whole trails the Labor Party.
Weakness or Survival?
Despite his perceived weakness, Malcolm Turnbull remains the best asset the Coalition currently has. Nevertheless, it is crucial to hypothesize and understand the implications if a spill motion were to be announced by Tony Abbott.
Restoring Tony Abbott to the Prime Ministership would be a significant challenge, primarily due to his deteriorated reputation among his peers. His knighthood, friendship with Prince Phililp, Peta Credlin’s involvement, and numerous discretionary decisions have severely impacted his standing.
Incumbency and Public Perception
Assuming the coalition decides to stage another leadership challenge, the outcome seems unlikely. In the 2015 leadership count, Abbott received a meager 44 votes, and many of these were not because he himself was considered superior to Turnbull but rather because the party was just against change.
If Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity were to plummet—as evidenced by the 17 consecutive loss of government polls—a new leader would likely emerge from within the party. It would be highly improbable for the coalition to revert to Tony Abbott, given his recent lackluster performance and the public’s current perception of him.
Out of Touch and Poor Exit Strategy
The 2015 exit strategy from Tony Abbott’s leadership was fraught with difficulties. Instead of venturing to the press to articulate his plans and paying his respects to the Governor General, Abbott kept Australia waiting for an entire day before making his statement.
His speech, which sought to portray the situation as solely detrimental to Abbott, Hockey, and Credlin, completely ignored the media’s role and instead blamed the press for his removal. Such an ungracious approach to his defeat ended up fostering a perception of Tony Abbott as out of touch with the Australian populace.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
Considering the current trajectory and public sentiment, it is likely that Malcolm Turnbull will continue to hold the leadership role. The public perceives him as a more competent and aligned leader relative to Tony Abbott. Any future attempts by Abbott to challenge Turnbull would face significant hurdles and would likely be met with resistance from the coalition and the public alike.
The future of Australian politics will be closely watched, with much speculation about who will emerge as the next leader. For now, the coalition’s best bet appears to be supporting the leader they already have.