Will Subramanian Swamy Be the Next Prime Minister After Modi?

The question of who will succeed Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India has been a topic of intense debate, with many speculating that Subramanian Swamy may be a potential contender. However, the political landscape in India makes this a highly uncertain scenario, especially given Swamy's current association with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Swamy's Political Disconnect with BJP

Subramanian Swamy, a prominent Indian politician with a strong background in economics and governance, is well-versed in several languages, including English, Hindi, and his mother tongue, Tamil. His fluency in these languages might make him a versatile candidate, but his ties to the BJP are a major hurdle.

Swamy has often expressed his regret and disappointment in not seizing the opportunity to lead a minority government in 1990 when he could have joined the Janata or Janata Dal. At that time, the political climate was rife with uncertainty and economic instability, which could have made it feasible for him to gain more ground.

Challenges of Current Political Climate

Today, politics in India is highly charged and defined by caste, community, regional, and class dynamics. Swamy's intellectual and academic credentials, while impressive, do not translate into a broad public appeal or a strong grassroots support base. He is primarily known among a specific segment of the educated elite and intelligentsia, which limits his reach and influence.

Prospects for 2024

The year 2024 is described by many as too late to consider Swamy as a potential future Prime Minister. The BJP had numerous opportunities to present Swamy as their candidate when Modi was not the preferred choice. However, the party leadership opted for Narendra Modi, possibly due to the perception of Modi's strong base and electoral success.

Currently, the BJP's strategy seems to be centered on continuing with Modi's leadership into 2024. While other names like Nitin Gadkari, Amit Shah, and Adityanath are being mentioned, none of them have the proven record or the kind of support that Swamy possesses. The proximity of the elections in 2024 means that Swamy, despite his vast expertise and experience, is unlikely to be considered a viable candidate at this stage.

Political Struggles and Hypothetical Scenarios

Politicians often use different strategies in different phases of their political career. For Swamy, it is possible that he could manipulate political shifts for his benefit. Some people have characterized his political behavior as dependent on the parties he aligns with. He is known to pivot his allegiances based on the circumstances:

BJP: Asks for support when it benefits him. Congress: Beggars when he needs to align with a rival party. Tamil-Card: Uses it for support from his home state and his linguistic base.

Given these behaviors, it is challenging to envision Swamy as a stable or reliable PM because his actions and allegiances appear to be more opportunistic than principled.

Conclusion

Subramanian Swamy's vast experience and knowledge make him a formidable candidate for the role of Prime Minister. However, his current association with the BJP and the political climate of today's India make it highly unlikely that he will be the next Prime Minister. The BJP's strategy, with Modi's proven success and voter base, seems to be steering clear of Swamy at this juncture. Moreover, the political environment requires a leader with a strong mass appeal, and Swamy's profile, primarily among intellectuals, is not sufficient to secure him a position in India's topmost political office.