Will Donald Trump Run as a Third Party Candidate?
The rumblings about a potential third-party run by Donald Trump continue to resurface, especially if he fails to secure the Republican nomination. This article explores the likelihood of such a scenario and its potential impacts.
Why a Third-Party Candidate?
Many supporters of Donald Trump have expressed their desire for him to run as an independent. They believe that such a move would ensure that he could run as he sees fit, without the constraints of party politics. For instance, one commenter stated, 'I wish he would run as an independent. That would mean that he was cheating to get his one vote.'
However, the likelihood of this happening is considerably low. Even after the November 5th election, Republicans are expected to react harshly to anything Trump does, making a successful third-party bid extremely difficult. Another commenter put it succinctly, 'After Nov. 5th even Republicans will revile him so it is not likely he would ever be able to mount a successful third party attempt.'
The Realities of a Third-Party Bid
The idea of a third-party run by Trump is not without its challenges. His financial independence is in question, as one commenter pointed out: 'Do you really think John Trump will give up the cash cow of the Republican party and pay for his own election run? Remember how quickly he bailed on self-funding in 2015–2016. ' It’s clear that securing the necessary funding for a third-party run would be a significant hurdle.
Moreover, if Trump fails to secure the Republican nomination, he may not see the value in continuing his candidacy. As one commenter speculated, 'If the orange jesus doesn't become the Republican candidate he will either have a stroke or take his plane to a non extradition country.' This statement is an exaggerated reflection of the current political climate and serves to emphasize the dire consequences of losing the Republican nomination for Trump.
Electoral Implications
Supporters argue that a third-party run by Trump could significantly impact the 2024 election results. One commenter suggested that, if Trump ran as an independent, it would split the right-wing vote, thus securing a win for the incumbent Biden. Another embraced the idea of Trump running as an independent, as it could help Democrats to regain a majority in the US House of Representatives and maintain control of the Senate. 'Democrats could not be that lucky. Yes Donald, run as an independent and take your batshit crazy GOP base with you,' remarked one enthusiast.
Despite such hopes, the reality is that a third-party run by Trump is unlikely to materialize if he is allowed on the ballot. The potential for him losing the GOP primary and the ensuing loss of support make such a bid futile, as another commenter noted, 'If he loses the primary somehow he’s lost all his support and running in any capacity thereafter would be an exercise in futility.'