Will American Airlines or Delta United Order the Boeing 777X?
Speculation Surrounding the Boeing 777X
The new Boeing 777X is poised to become the world's largest and most efficient twin-engine jet. While the size difference between the 777X and the 777-300ER is minimal, the 777-8 is slightly smaller and the 777-9 is slightly larger. The key differences lie in the design technologies and efficiencies, which are more relevant to airlines than passengers.
The 777-8 is approximately 70 meters in length, capable of seating around 385 passengers in a modern two-class configuration. It boasts a range of over 16,000 kilometers. The 777-9, being nearly 77 meters in length, can seat around 425 passengers with a range of approximately 13,500 kilometers, similar to the 777-300ER. According to Boeing, the 777X is 10-15% more fuel-efficient than the 777-300ER.
Impact of the Pandemic on Airline Operations
The global pandemic has significantly disrupted the airline industry. Airlines are increasingly realizing that lower capacity may be more beneficial than maximizing efficiency, given the unpredictable nature of travel demand. Planes are often not fully utilized or loaded, leading to lower overall efficiency despite advancements in technology.
Predictions on Ordering the 777X
To predict which airline is most likely to order the 777X, one can look at their existing fleet. Historically, United has the largest fleet of 777s. Given United's lack of Airbus wide-bodies, it makes sense to consider them as a potential future operator. Delta, on the other hand, has chosen the A350 for large aircraft, making the 777X duplicative of their existing fleet and too big to replace the 767s. Therefore, Delta is unlikely to be a significant operator for the 777X.
American Airlines, having some 67 777s with some older models in their fleet, might be more inclined towards the 777X. However, the decision would depend on the uncertain near-term travel patterns, with destinations like Tokyo and London Heathrow being key factors.
Industry Outlook and Future Prospects
The airline industry remains in flux due to ongoing pandemic uncertainties and the timeline for full recovery of long-haul flights. Boeing has revised its 777X program sales projection from 400 to 350 planes, considering the current firm orders at 320 units. It is possible that none of the U.S. airlines will place orders for the 777X, given the current market conditions.
Conclusion
Based on the current market trends and existing operational requirements, American Airlines may be the most likely to order the 777X, but this remains speculative. As the industry evolves, airlines will continue to balance their fleet composition to meet evolving passenger demand and operational needs. The Boeing 777X, with its unique capabilities, offers significant advantages, but the decision to order will ultimately depend on numerous factors, including market conditions and operational strategies.