Understanding the Strait of Hormuz: Why Iran Could Potentially Disrupt Oil Transit
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transportation route for global oil and gas trade. However, although Iran does not actively control the strait, it possesses several capabilities that could make transit through this crucial waterway difficult or even dangerous. This article explores the reasons why Iran could act in a manner that disrupts oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why "Control" of the Strait is Misleading/h2>
While Iran is often mentioned as the key player in this area, suggesting they control the Strait of Hormuz is somewhat misleading. The strait is recognized as an international waterway by most countries, as per recent global agreements and international law. Iran’s actions are more accurately described in terms of potential disruption to transit, rather than control.
Potential Disruption Methods
Several key methods could be employed by Iran to disrupt oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, including:
Mining
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) or Iranian proxies could deploy mines, making transit through the strait extremely dangerous. Even with the best navies in the world, it would take a few weeks to clear even a few narrow shipping lanes of mines, let alone hundreds. In the 1980s, a small number of Iranian mines already caused damage to vessels. In recent years, there have been reports of Iran using mines to attack tankers, further highlighting this potential threat.
Drone and Missile Attacks
Using drones or missiles to attack transiting ships would be another significant disruption. Iran has demonstrated the capability to deploy such attacks in recent months. For example, there have been reports of Iran being responsible for a lethal attack on a Japanese-owned oil tanker off Oman. This shows the raised vigilance required for ships traversing the strait.
Harassment and Attacks by Fast Attack Craft
The IRGCN may harass or attack shipping with fast attack craft or small boats. This could involve persistent monitoring and provocative actions that make the Strait of Hormuz too dangerous for smooth passage. Such actions could escalate into broader disruptions of maritime traffic.
Coastal Defense Cruise Missiles (CDCM)
Coastal defense cruise missiles, either via proxies or from Iranian CDCM sites, could also pose a threat. The U.S. has documented Iran supplying weapons to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, which includes CDCMs. While this method is the least likely for a direct closure, it still represents a significant threat to safe passage.
The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint. Approximately 30% of the world’s global seaborne oil trade and 30% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade pass through this strait. This makes it a critical point for many countries, especially those dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports. Understanding the potential disruptions is crucial for businesses, governments, and corporate intelligence agencies.
Corporate Preparedness and Business Continuity
Business continuity and supply chain risk managers should have detailed plans to handle temporary closures of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the economic impact of such a disruption would likely be significant, Iran’s limited refinery capabilities mean that in the long term, their actions could work against them. Iran might achieve temporary control of the strait and impose severe disruptions, but the economic cost could outweigh their gains.
In summary, while Iran does not actively control the Strait of Hormuz, they do possess capabilities that can significantly disrupt oil transit. Businesses and governments must stay vigilant and prepared to mitigate the risks posed by such actions.