When Will Brexit Unfold? The Dual Implications for the UK and the World
The UK's forthcoming exit from the European Union (EU) is a complex and multifaceted issue that could influence both the UK and the global landscape in profound ways. Whether Brexit will primarily benefit or harm various stakeholders remains uncertain, but the process itself has brought to light the intricate interdependencies that we often overlook.
Uncertainty in the 2016 Referendum
Before the official exit, the 2016 referendum lacked consensus among the Leave campaign supporters regarding the UK's future relationship with the EU. This ambiguity was critical, as it underscored the lack of concrete plans for a post-Brexit world. During the campaign, Theresa May triggered Article 50 without a parliamentary mandate on the future trading relationship. Similarly, Boris Johnson's campaign promises of ‘Get Brexit Done’ were vague, lacking detailed discussions on the UK's future economic goals and aspirations.
Lack of Clarity in the Current Negotiations
As of now, Mr. Johnson and his ministers have not published the government's trade negotiating mandate for talks with the EU. In his recent Greenwich speech, Mr. Johnson offered few concrete details or rational objectives. This lack of clarity leaves many questions unanswered and creates an atmosphere of uncertainty, both domestically and internationally.
The Diverging Impacts of Brexit
While the potential benefits and drawbacks of Brexit are often discussed within the UK, the international ramifications are often sidelined. Gary Korenstein posits that Brexit could have diverging impacts. It could be both beneficial and detrimental for various groups on different scales. For some, the benefits might outweigh the drawbacks, while for others, the negatives might prevail. The complexity of these dual implications is highlighted by the notion that the UK government might prioritize its own interests at the expense of the global community.
Traditional ideals that prioritize the well-being of others (the Golden Rule) could be overlooked in favor of short-term gains. The UK's potential to use "beggar thy neighbor" tactics to achieve its own objectives, even if it entails harming others in the process, underscores the need for caution. This approach, reminiscent of pre-World War I nationalism, could potentially lead to a worse global outcome.
The Principle of Brexit Beyond Economics
The issue of Brexit goes beyond mere economics and delves into the principles of sovereignty and interdependence. The UK's willingness to use dubious claims to relinquish sovereignty for the sake of limiting outcomes for other nations is worrying. Smaller, formerly friendly neighboring countries in the non-British Empire EU stand to lose even more, potentially exacerbating global tensions.
The 'Be careful what you wish for' principle, along with the Silver Rule ('Do not do unto others as you would not have them do unto you'), further emphasize the need for restraint and consideration. The UK's actions in the context of Brexit should not only be about their own interests but also about fostering a more stable and prosperous global environment.
Conclusion
The future of Brexit remains shrouded in uncertainty. While the potential benefits and drawbacks are debated within the UK, the broader international implications are paramount. The principle of sovereignty must be balanced with the international community's well-being, and any actions should consider the ultimate global impact.