What Would Happen in the US Elections If Both Candidates Tied in Popular and Electoral Votes?
Imagine a scenario where both presidential candidates tie in both popular and electoral votes. This highly unlikely event would result in a series of complex procedures designed to break the tie and determine the winner, mostly involving the House of Representatives. Let's delve into the details of what would happen.
The Immediate Aftermath of a Tie
The day after the election, if no clear winner is declared, the public might be woken up with a headache-delivering revelation: the vote totals in every state, from the smallest (Wyoming) to the largest (California), would match perfectly. Such a scenario is so absurd that it's hard to fathom, let alone take it seriously. In reality, such uniformity would be an immediate red flag for voter fraud or manipulation on a grand scale, and the recounting process would begin almost immediately.
The Least Deliberative Choice: The House of Representatives
In the case of a tie in the Electoral College, the decision is ultimately made by the House of Representatives. Here's how it would work:
State by state coin flips: In some hypothetical scenarios, the result might be determined by a coin flip. We can imagine a convoluted sequence where individual states would flip a coin to decide their electoral votes. This process would continue until all the states' electoral votes have been accounted for. Deadlock resolution via the House of Representatives: If the flips end up in a deadlock where no single candidate has a clear majority of electoral votes, the matter would be referred to the House of Representatives. Each state delegation would then get one vote to cast for the President. House votes by state: Each state delegation would vote for the candidate with the most electoral votes, with each state effectively having one vote. If a state is evenly split, the state chooses its delegation's vote. Majority vote requirement: To win, a candidate would need a majority of 26 state votes. This makes the Republican party's current advantage in state delegations a significant factor.Further Challenges: Ties in the Senate and Vice Presidency
In addition to the President, the Vice President is also elected. If there is a tie in the running for Vice President as well, the Senate would choose the winner. Here's a breakdown of this process:
Electoral College tie for VP: If the Vice President's vote is also tied, the Senate would decide. Each Senator gets one vote, and a majority of 51 votes would be required to win. Procedural conundrum: The framers of the Constitution placed the responsibility of deciding the President with the House, which some argue is the least deliberative chamber. This choice raises questions about the wisdom of such a decision-making process.Historical Perspectives and Political Insight
Historically, presidential candidates have focused on winning the electoral college rather than the popular vote, knowing that the latter doesn't guarantee victory. Mitt Romney once noted that Republicans only need 47% of the popular vote to secure the electoral college majority, underscoring the system's flaws.
In practice, the current electoral system often favors Republicans, as they tend to perform better in swing states. Democrats have occasionally won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote, as seen with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000.
The detailed procedures and potential deadlocks in the House and Senate highlight the complex and at times messy nature of the U.S. electoral system. While the scenario of a tie is rare, understanding the mechanisms in place provides a clearer picture of how our nation makes such critical decisions.