What If the Confederacy Won the Civil War: The Duration of Slavery

Historically, the idea of slavery's persistence was a horrifying yet conceivable scenario had the Confederate States won the Civil War. The implications would have been staggering, affecting not only the immediate future but potentially extending well into the 20th century and beyond.

Slavery's Persistence and Transition

Assuming the Confederacy won the Civil War, slavery would not have disappeared overnight. Instead, it would morph into more subtle, yet equally oppressive forms. One such alternative could be sharecropping. This system, prevalent after the Civil War, essentially pinned freed slaves into a cycle of debt, making it incredibly difficult to escape the shackles of servitude. Additionally, criminal laws could penalize individuals with forced labor sentences, further entrenching an oppressive system. Furthermore, contract labor positions could be manipulated to exploit former slaves, ensuring the continuation of unpaid and undervalued labor.

Estimates suggest that under such conditions, slavery could have persisted until the 1890s. The collapse of commodity prices at the end of the 19th century could have pushed many to seek alternative means of survival, which might have included industrial employment. However, this was merely conjecture, as slavery's persistence was driven by deeply rooted ideologies and economic necessities.

Impact of Racism and Economic Sentiment

Racism, a prevalent and profoundly irrational ideology, pervasive even among abolitionists, would have ensured the continuation of slavery. The Confederate ideologies were firmly entrenched in the belief that African Americans were inherently inferior, necessitating their subservient roles in society.

Even if the Confederacy perpetuated slavery, it would not grant any substantive human rights to freed slaves. In reality, the period between the end of the Civil War and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was marked by systemic racism and segregation. Freed slaves were met with harsh realities, such as the Black Codes, which restricted their freedom and rights. It took another century for meaningful change to occur due to federal intervention and the struggle for civil rights.

Alternative Economic Systems and Industrialization

Another possibility is that industrialization and the growing anti-slavery sentiment in Europe would have rendered slavery economically unviable by the late 1800s. As industries developed, the need for large-scale agricultural labor diminished, making slave labor less attractive. However, Southern planters might have clung to the idea of indentured servitude, maintaining a semblance of slavery under different names. This would have allowed them to exploit labor while avoiding the legal and cultural condemnation that accompanied overt slavery.

Escalation and Reversal

Some argue that the eventual abolition of slavery in the Confederacy might have been driven by the sheer numbers of escaped slaves. The Union's success in recruiting slaves as soldiers and granting them freedom could have fueled a tide of desertion, leading to a crisis for the Confederate economy. To mitigate this, the Confederacy might have had to formally abolish slavery to retain a substantial portion of its labor force.

From historical accounts, former slave Harriet Tubman eloquently captured the sentiments of many who had experienced freedom. She stated, "Now I’ve been free I know what a dreadful condition slavery is. I have seen hundreds of escaped slaves but I never saw one who was willing to go back and be a slave." The goal of freedom became a deeply ingrained desire, and the war was seen as a means to achieve this. In essence, the fight for civil rights and the end of slavery was a struggle for human dignity and justice.

It is important to remember that change does not occur overnight. The sacrifices made during the Civil War paved the way for subsequent movements, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which finally enforced equality under the law. If the Confederacy had succeeded, the journey to true freedom would have been even more arduous and fraught with obstacles. However, the victories of the Union established a foundation for ongoing progress.

Forming Communities and Self-Governance

Even in the face of systemic oppression, the option to form one’s own communities and establish self-governance remains a powerful tool for change. As the Amish demonstrate, it is possible to create and sustain a society based on shared values and principles. For those dissatisfied with the status quo, the path to change is not solely through governmental systems but also through community organizing and real-world action. By collectively forming and governing their own spaces, individuals can create a new future free from the constraints of the past.