Understanding the Shift in US Electoral Voting Patterns: Urban vs. Rural Divides

When examining an electoral map by county, a common observation is that the majority of counties in the US tend to vote Republican, while it is predominantly urban centers that vote Democratic. But is this observation correct? Let's delve into the factors and trends that drive this voting pattern.

The Geography of US Voting Patterns

Indeed, cities have more people and tend to lean Democratic, while rural areas have more territory and lean Republican. These observations are widely noted; however, the specific dynamics at play are often not as apparent on the surface.

Examples of County-Level Voting Trends

Take the example of Eureka County, Nevada. With approximately 4000 square miles and only 2000 people, it is likely that this county voted Republican. This area is significantly larger than Rhode Island and Delaware combined, yet has a population density similar to a square kilometer of a suburban neighborhood. This is a prime example of how the landscape of rural areas can outweigh the population of urban centers in terms of electoral outcomes.

The Strategic Adjustments of Political Parties

Political parties strategically target certain segments of the overall population and continually adjust their messaging as these demographics shift. Republicans, for example, have traditionally focused on rural and suburban voters. However, they have also begun focusing on wealthy business interests. These votes, although small compared to the overall national population, provide significant financial backing.

The Democrats, on the other hand, have moved towards targeting urban voters as well as ethnic minorities, who are heavily concentrated in urban areas. This strategy leverages the larger populations in these areas to their advantage.

Case Study: The 2018 Mid-Term Elections in Texas

Another case study to consider is the 2018 mid-term elections in Texas, where the large population centers leaned more Democratic. Fort Worth's Tarrant County, with a population of about 2,500,000, edged slightly towards the Democratic candidate in the US Senate election. However, a large number of small counties throughout the state were overwhelmingly Republican, ensuring a 2.8-point margin for the Republican candidate.

Educational and Demographic Implications

The Democratic Party has successfully convinced urban centers that they have created a 'paradise' where slums and poverty are nonexistent. Alternatively, they may paint a narrative that fostering an undereducated, underemployed underclass is beneficial. Both narratives work to their advantage, depending on their agenda.

Understanding these patterns can provide valuable insights into the political landscape and help in making informed decisions during future elections.