The UK and the European Union: The Pros and Cons of Leaving Without a Deal

With the UK's exit from the European Union (E.U.) completed on January 31, 2020, the possibility of leaving with no deal is no longer in the realm of theoretical considerations. However, the decision to leave the E.U. without a deal is fraught with significant consequences and risks.

Understanding the Current Status

The United Kingdom has already left the E.U., and as such, it is not a member of the European Union. This means that leaving the E.U. without a deal is technically impossible, at least in the sense of ceasing to exist as a member. Instead, the UK can continue to trade on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, a situation which has already been in place since the completion of the transition period.

The Potential for No-Deal Brexit

While the common narrative suggests that the UK might be able to leave the E.U. without a deal, the reality is far more complex. The primary issue lies in the special arrangements for Northern Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement, which includes the Northern Ireland Protocol, is a cornerstone of the UK's exit deal with the E.U. This protocol prevents the imposition of a hard border with the Republic of Ireland by maintaining certain regulatory and customs checks within Northern Ireland. The protocol is dependent on the European Union's willingness to negotiate a future trading relationship with the UK. If no such agreement is reached, the protocol will be rendered moot.

The Risks and Implications of No-Deal Brexit

Leaving without a deal would severely impact the UK's trade relations with the E.U. Economically, the UK's worst trade deal with the E.U. currently yields a vast trade deficit. With the coronavirus pandemic further complicating the economic landscape, any additional adverse economic impact would be compounded.

Politically, leaving without a deal would also have far-reaching consequences. The UK would become a pariah state with a zero credit rating, losing its bargaining power on the global stage. This would have profound implications for international relations and trade negotiations.

The Northern Ireland Question

The most significant obstacle to leaving the E.U. without a deal is the Northern Ireland Protocol. Proposals to "scrap" the deal or void the Withdrawal Agreement, as suggested by some, would require the UK to renegotiate the protocol and potentially the terms of its exit with the E.U. Such actions would be legally and politically complex, and they would come with significant risks.

It is crucial to understand that the protocol is deeply embedded in British law and has the backing of the Northern Ireland Assembly. The UK's government has been clear that it is not prepared to submit Northern Ireland to E.U. authority without a good reason. This stance is rooted in the democratic processes of the United Kingdom and the protection of the rights of Northern Ireland's citizens.

Conclusion

While the possibility of leaving the E.U. without a deal exists, the potential risks and consequences suggest that it is not a favorable path. The welfare of the British people must be placed above all else, and the prioritization of economic and political stability should guide the UK's future relationship with the E.U.