The Strategic Survival Game: Choosing the Word to Ensure Your Life
Imagine a scenario where all 7.7 billion people on Earth are made to say one word out loud at the same time. If you say the same word as someone else, you die. What word would guarantee your survival? This is a perfect example of k-level thinking, a complex strategic problem where each player anticipates the actions of others.
K-Level Thinking and Obscure Language
The obvious starting point might be to look up some obscure word in the Sentinelese language. Sentinelese is so rare that it’s considered an unrecognized orthonography by many browsers, and it’s limited to a small uninhabited island in the Indian Ocean. With its limited number of speakers, saying a Sentinelese word would likely ensure that you are the only one to use it, thus guaranteeing your survival.
However, if everyone is striving to find this rare word, it quickly becomes a race to commonality. Saying a word like “the” might become the winning strategy, because it is so easy to remember and so widely known. Yet, if everyone knows this is the potential strategy, they might all pick “the,” leading to a potential disaster for everyone.
A Mixed-Strategy Game
This scenario is a mixed-strategy game similar to the classic Matching Pennies game, where both players have multiple strategies, and the best strategy depends on the other player's choice. In this case, the payoff matrix is like a game of Predicting Others' Predictions, leading to a situation where the solution might be to pick a semi-obscure word—an uncommon word rather than one that requires extensive research.
For instance, asking whether someone would pick “Armageddon” could lead to a situation where all players assume no one would, leading to a herd mentality as everyone rushes to this common choice.
Theoretical Insights and Real-World Applications
This problem is a fascinating example of game theory and strategic thinking. It aligns with the work of economists like Vince Crawford, who explores how individuals and groups make decisions under uncertainty, often leading to skewed and off-balance outcomes.
Similar strategic thinking can be observed in other contexts, such as the famous "Guess 2/3 of the Average" game, where participants' predictions are often off by large margins, leading to unexpected results. In this game, the most common guess is often much higher than what is actually right, as people overestimate others' guesses.
The Moral of the Story: "Nevermore"
While the game may be complex and theoretically intriguing, the real-world implications of such a scenario are quite grim. Thanks to Edgar Allan Poe, we now have a classic answer to ensure our survival: Nevermore. This short response not only requires no research or complex thinking but also guarantees that it is highly unlikely that anyone else would say the same word, making it a wise choice in this hypothetical survival game.