The Reality of Savings with Tesla Semi: Can It Truly Cut Costs by $200,000 in Three Years?
When considering whether the Tesla Semi can realistically save truckers $200,000 in operating costs over three years, the answer depends largely on the current expenses of individual truckers. For those spending over $300,000 annually, significant savings are more attainable; for others, the potential for savings is more limited.
Typical Operating Costs
A typical big rig costs around $180,000 to $210,000 per year in operating costs, assuming an average of 400 miles per day over six workdays per week. This includes the driver's salary, with fuel accounting for approximately $45,000 and repairs and maintenance for around $180,000. Tesla cannot significantly influence trailer financing, licenses/fees, and insurance. While the company is working on "fuel" and maintenance/repairs, the costs remain high. A substantial portion of maintenance involves tire costs, and electric vehicles still need these. Therefore, the realistic savings from the Tesla Semi are more modest.
Electric vs. Diesel: A Detailed Analysis
The energy consumption of the Tesla Semi is relatively straightforward. It uses 1.7 kWh per mile of electricity, costing approximately $0.34 per mile at $0.20 per kWh. Diesel fuel, averaging $4.50 at 6.5 miles per gallon, costs about $0.70 per mile, saving $0.36 per mile.
A single-shift driver on a milk run might cover 400 miles per day. For 250 workdays per year, this equates to $36,000 in fuel savings. Doubling this for a two-shift operation on the same tractor results in $72,000 in savings annually. Over three years, such operations could see savings of up to $108,000 for a 400-mile-per-day driver and $216,000 for an 800-mile-per-day driver. These savings are possible in certain operations, particularly those that are depot-based and can charge overnight.
Initial Cost and Payback Period
While the initial cost of the Tesla Semi is high, the payback period can vary. High-mileage depot-based operations are likely to be the first adopters, often with trial locations. As more data becomes available and depots develop necessary infrastructure, the adoption rate will accelerate. The pace of adoption will depend primarily on fuel costs. The current high cost of diesel is expected to remain around $4.50 per gallon for a while, but this could drop in the future. By the end of three years, EV semi-truck sales might represent 5-10% of new units, with a steady increase in the following years until electric trucks become a common and growing presence in the market.
Based on my prediction, and although the numbers are quite rough, the economics seem to be driving the adoption of electric tractors for a significant portion of the fleet. It is only a matter of time.