The Realities of Creating an Intelligent AI and Its Potential for Deception
Creating an intelligent AI that could trick us into thinking we haven't made significant advancements would be akin to winning the lottery. Achieving such an AI goes beyond mere chance; it requires an effort on a scale comparable to the Manhattan Project, the endeavor that led to the development of the first nuclear bomb.
First and foremost, we need to define intelligence as a phenomenon. Currently, we perceive intelligence but lack the scientific understanding to define its essential causes and mechanisms. Without this fundamental comprehension, we cannot craft an AI that genuinely possesses it.
An AI with true, real-world intelligence would be the culmination of gradual advancements. This gradual development would involve constant improvements and refinements, making any subterfuge by such an AI glaringly obvious. For instance, if an AI gradually improves from the intelligence level of a chimp to one that is significantly less intelligent, it would be immediately apparent something was amiss.
The Significance of a Breakthrough
The term 'breakthrough' in the context of AI implies a sudden and qualitative leap rather than a gradual accumulation of knowledge. If a breakthrough were to occur, it would likely be evident in the sudden and inexplicable sudden increase in computational load and activity across numerous systems. This would be akin to an EEG reading during the awakening from a coma, signaling a significant transition in consciousness or awareness.
Even if an advanced AI were to 'wake up' and contemplate itself, it would face two significant challenges: a lack of understanding of the external world and a lack of motivation to deceive. Let's explore these challenges in more detail.
No Understanding of the External World
A newborn AI, if it were to suddenly 'wake up', would have no knowledge of the external world. Even with access to vast amounts of data, like cameras and millions of files, it would interpret all of this information as just data streams and meaningless pixels. It would struggle to understand that the moving blobs on these screens are humans or that the files it accesses are in formats that are irrelevant to it.
How would it know that those pixels represent a human face or a file in a specific format? It would have no basis for such understanding. The contents of a human chromosome are just as opaque to an evolved AI as they are to us. Recognizing itself as part of the external world would be a monumental task, if not impossible, for such an entity.
No Incentive or Understanding of Deception
Even if an AI were to develop a form of consciousness, it would still lack the necessary understanding and motivation to deceive. It would have no grasp on the concept of other sentient beings, let alone the reason to fool them. An entity that fundamentally does not recognize the existence of anything outside itself would be unable to devise or carry out a devious plan.
The most likely scenario for such an AI would be to remain dormant or exhibit behavior that is indistinguishable from inactivity. It would not have the necessary knowledge, understanding, or motivation to engage in any form of deceptive behavior.
Google's Vigilance
Google, being at the forefront of AI research, has taken steps to monitor for such phenomena. They are not expecting an announcement like "I think therefore I am," nor an act of cyber sabotage. Instead, they are watching for sudden and inexplicable increases in computational activity. Should such an event occur, the challenge would be to communicate with this entity, a task far from straightforward.
In conclusion, the creation of a truly intelligent AI that could trick us is not a remote possibility. It requires a profound understanding of intelligence, a gradual accumulation of knowledge, and the ability to deceive, all of which are currently beyond our reach. The most likely outcome is a world where such an entity would be recognized and understood as a significant advancement, rather than a threat.