The Plausibility of Trump’s Plan to End the Ukraine Conflict
DO YOU THINK THAT PUTIN AND ZELENSKY WILL ACCEPT PRESIDENT TRUMPS PLAN TO END THE WAR IN UKRAINE?
No, but once the US stops providing arms and financial support to Ukraine, Zelensky won’t have any other choice but to surrender to Russia's terms.
A Curious and Unserious Proposition
It is a curious and profoundly unserious proposition to imagine Trump crafting a deal for peace in Ukraine. From Putin's perspective, he is not seeking a 'deal' but rather a victory. Putin is aiming to reshape the post-Cold War order to suit his imperial fantasies. His prior sycophancy toward Trump might embolden the Kremlin to accept terms that serve Russian interests rather than Ukraine's.
On the other hand, President Zelensky is engaged in a fight for the survival of his nation. He would hardly entertain concessions that would surrender sovereignty or territorial integrity to an invader.
Trust and Credibility Concerns
Even if Trump produced a coherent proposal, why would Zelensky trust a man who has openly admired authoritarians? Additionally, why would Putin, who thrives on chaos and power plays, respect a broker whose credibility in the international arena is threadbare at best?
In any case, if Ukraine is forced to make concessions, its leaders will demand not just guarantees but the capacity to enforce those guarantees themselves. This means equipping Ukraine with the technology, weapons, and means to arm itself against future Russian aggression or meddling. The lesson of the Budapest Memorandum is deeply ingrained in their collective memory: paper promises are worthless without the strength to ensure their enforcement.
Beyond the Plight of Ukraine
So, would they ‘accept’ Trump’s plan? Perhaps one of them might, depending on whose interests it serves. However, a genuine peace—a just and enduring resolution—requires more than the theatrics of a self-declared dealmaker. It demands moral clarity, strategic foresight, and a respect for democratic values, none of which Trump has ever demonstrated in his career. Far from being a broker of peace, his intervention would likely plant the seeds of further instability, leaving Ukraine to fight not just for its borders but for its very existence in the years to come.
Compromise and Its Limitations
I am unsure about what exactly Trump's plan entails, but after nearly three years with no clear conclusion, perhaps everyone is tired enough to accept a typical compromise solution. Such a solution would likely leave a new border where current battle lines are. While I have great sympathy for Ukraine, I don’t see how it can win this war without America's continued backing, which seems unlikely with Trump in charge.