The Optimal Brexit Deal and Its Realistic Path Forward
Back in the days leading up to the Brexit referendum, the promise of an 'optimal' deal seemed straightforward. The UK would retain all the benefits of EU membership but without the associated negative aspects. After all, wasn't that the whole goal?
The Promise and Reality of Brexit
One where we leave the EU, simple. However, this simplicity is where the challenges begin. Absent a unified Brexit position, the different factions present a complex landscape. These factions include the hardcore Brexiteers, the EEC Brexiteers, and the Single Market Brexiteers. Each has its own version of the 'right' path forward, and none of these can agree on each other's terms.
The Core Factions and Their Goals
Hardcore Brexiteers
At the heart of this debate are the hardcore Brexiteers, who make up about half of the Brexit vote. This group is not a monolith. It encompasses disaster capitalists, libertarian ideologues, nostalgic little Englanders, xenophobes, and even anti-EU agents working for foreign powers like the USA or Russia. Their goal? No deal. Why? The pursuit of disruption, profit maximization, weakened negotiating power, and an elite-driven agenda.
They argue that without the need to spell out their future plans, they can wave the flag and maintain a desired public image. Additionally, they prioritize the ability to accept inferior trade deal terms when needed and ensure that the ruling elite can keep their power and wealth away from public scrutiny.
EEC Brexiteers
The EEC Brexiteers prefer the free trade aspect of the EU but oppose the social engineering elements related to workers' rights, holidays, parental leave, and EU citizen rights. They aim to achieve a significant part of what the public voted for without allowing independent trade deals, especially in the customs union areas.
Single Market Brexiteers
The single market Brexiteers want to exit EU treaties while remaining within the single market for some or all goods and services. This would involve leaving the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), and European Court of Justice (ECJ)/European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). The UK would conduct its own international trade policy, have a form of freedom of movement (more limited than under the TEU), and be subject to another supranational court.
The Absence of Agreement and Theories
Despite the various factions, a version that satisfies everyone does not currently exist. One of the more fantasized ideas was an enhanced Canada deal. However, the UK wanted status quo on agriculture and goods, mutual recognition and unlimited access for financial services, and unlimited access for other services. These were the main reasons Brexit has not been fully delivered.
The Real Reasons Behind the Delay
The delay in delivering Brexit is often blamed on various external factors, but the truth lies with these factional disagreements. There is an inability to agree on a clear vision for Brexit in both the short and long term, as well as priorities. Additionally, there is an unwillingness to compromise and a reluctance to face the hard truths about the post-Brexit UK's future.
The promise of 'Brexit means Brexit' is a circular definition, leading the country into a perpetual cycle of indecision. For the UK to move forward, it needs real leadership that can define what Brexit truly means in terms of goals, priorities, and impact. A no-deal Brexit by default is a compromised solution that fails to hold anyone accountable for outcomes.
A new leader is needed, someone who can devise a plan with necessary compromises to deliver the goals, priorities, and mitigate negative impacts. Most importantly, this leader must secure a democratic mandate to deliver this plan.
The Future is in Hand
The Brexit cabinet, led by Boris Johnson, must now take responsibility for fixing the broken promises. This means a realistic approach to negotiations and setting clear, achievable goals. It is a responsibility that lies with all of us to ensure the UK moves forward with clarity and purpose.