The Future of Syria: Threats and Power Struggles Following the Assad Regime's Fall

The toppled Assad regime leaves behind a complex and unstable landscape, with regional and global powers vying for control. The future of Syria remains uncertain, with significant threats looming large as various factions jockey for power and resources.

Geopolitical Players

Several major players will have a significant impact on the post-Assad Syria. Israel, the United States, and Turkey each have their own agendas and intentions for the region.

Israel: The future of Israel in Syria is contentious. There are concerns that if Israel gains control, it might expand its territory annexed under the guise of "Greater Israel," potentially expropriating vast swathes of land. United States: The US has aligned with proxies like the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have controlled significant portions of the east and south. However, their interests lie primarily in securing resources, notably oil and wheat, which these factions hope to control and exploit. Turkey: Turkish factions are divided and are likely to engage in internal conflicts, as well as contest with the SDF. Turkey might seek to use any opportunity to further its influence and control.

Key Challenges

One of the most significant threats to the new order hinges on which group emerges victorious in the ensuing power struggle. Speculations point towards the rise of Al-Qaeda fundamentalists, which could complicate efforts for stability further.

The Assad regime's fall could present severe challenges. Russia, a key ally, has a vested interest in maintaining the Assad regime's hold. The port of Tartus, which Russia has utilized for over 49 years, is of strategic importance. Sergeyev and Putin are keen on preserving this deal, as Tartus provides a strategic naval presence in the Mediterranean. With NATO's control over the Turkish Straits, Russia faces significant pressure to retain Tartus.

Regional Implications

The state of Syria is likely to descend into further chaos. Many regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, have historically contributed to the destabilization of the region by supporting terrorist groups. This complicates the prospects for a peaceful and stable transition.

Furthermore, conspiracy theories abound about the role of countries like Israel in exacerbating the conflict. These theories suggest that Israel has played a significant part in destabilizing Syria, fostering ongoing strife and furthering its strategic objectives in the region.

Conclusion

The post-Assad Syria will be shaped by the outcome of the power struggle. At present, Assad remains supported by Russia, albeit with the acquiescence of NATO members, who benefit from a trade-off: Ukraine in exchange for Syria. A change in the political landscape is unlikely to occur soon, if at all, due to the strategically aligned interests of these global and regional powers.

As the situation evolves, the future of Syria remains in the balance, with significant challenges and potential threats from various geopolitical players. The paths to stability and peace in the region are fraught with complexities, making the future uncertain and unstable.