The Future of India: What if the BJP Wins in 2019?

The 2019 Indian general election has been a topic of intense debate and concern, particularly in the liberal circles. While American liberals fear that another term for Donald Trump would undermine democratic institutions, Indian liberals have a similar, though more nuanced, apprehension about Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This article explores these fears and analyzes the possible implications for India's future.

The Modi-as-strongman Thesis

Many have drawn parallels between Modi's potential second term and global autocratic leaders. Leaders like Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte have taken steps that erode democratic norms. India's post-election scenario, however, is likely to be more complicated. According to exit polls, a second Modi government seems probable, but it may not necessarily be a stronger one.

Global Democratic Stakes

The world is witnessing a creeping rise of non-liberal states, and India's future is critically important in this context. Since Independence in 1947, India has struggled to fit into conventional Western liberal models, partly due to its haphazard approach to protecting constitutional rights. For those hoping to halt the rise of strongmen, an authoritarian direction under Modi would be a significant setback.

Consequences of Modi's Policies

Since taking power in 2014, Modi has implemented several policies that raise legitimate concerns. Initially, he positioned himself as a charismatic development man, moving away from his radical Hindutva advocacy. However, his 2019 election campaign has been marked by hostility towards ethno-religious minorities, especially Muslims. This shift is evident in his rhetoric and performances during the campaign.

Modi's Record and Populist Rhetoric

Modi's administration has shown populist leanings, attacking what he perceives as a corrupt elite. This elite is often described as a small but powerful group of English-speaking intellectuals. Modi's government has also degraded important institutions, such as the central bank and supreme court. The decline in India's global democratic rank, as noted by The Economist Intelligence Unit, is a concerning sign.

Historical Comparisons

Some historians, like Gyan Prakash from Princeton University, have drawn parallels between Modi and Indira Gandhi, modern India's most authoritarian leader. Gandhi's rule during the "Emergency" from 1975 to 1977 saw the suspension of constitutional freedoms. This historical comparison alarms critics and raises fears that Modi might seek far-reaching changes to India's constitutional order to enhance his authority and affirm Hinduism as a de facto state religion.

Modi's Possible Future Actions

Concerns about Modi's future actions are substantial. Some fear that a victorious and emboldened Modi might seek to change India's constitutional order to increase his own authority and affirm Hinduism as a de facto state religion. This scenario invites comparisons to other notorious strongmen who began with moderate, technocratic platforms but became progressively more authoritarian.

The direction taken by the BJP and Modi's second term in office will significantly impact India's democratic future. While many fear the worst, it is crucial for critical observers to monitor these developments closely.