The Future of Free Movement Between Japan and the EU: An Improbable Yet Possibility
Today, the European Union and Japan reached an agreement in principle regarding a comprehensive trade pact. This development raises the question: How long before Japan finally and fully opens its doors to free movement of people? My analysis suggests that such a scenario is highly improbable, yet not entirely impossible, under the given circumstances.
Current Visa Policies Highlighting the Imbalance
Japan's current visa policies provide a stark illustration of the imbalance in migrant opportunities between the two regions. For instance, a British 20-something looking to secure a working holiday visa in Japan finds the process straightforward, necessitating little more than a visit to the Japanese embassy and the submission of a few forms. The chances of obtaining such a visa are extremely high, often reaching 99%. In contrast, for a Japanese person seeking a working holiday visa for the UK, the process is significantly more complex. They must enter a draw where the likelihood of being selected is quite low.
This discrepancy supports the idea that free movement would not be a one-way street. Japan, facing a shortage of educated and openly-minded individuals with language skills, stands to benefit greatly from European migrants. Conversely, European countries would also gain access to a highly educated and well-versed populace, particularly from developed nations.
No Precedent for Comprehensive Free Movement
The notion that a free trade agreement would lead to comprehensive freedom of movement is not supported by historical precedents. While Switzerland's unique situation as an EU cluster state offers an exception, it does not establish a clear pattern for other nations. Historically, free trade agreements with the EU do not inherently lead to freedom of movement, as evidenced by the lack of such provisions in existing trade deals.
The EU has yet to implement freedom of movement clauses in any of its free trade agreements due to numerous political and economic barriers. As such, even if a comprehensive EU-Japan trade agreement is signed, it does not logically or automatically imply the implementation of free movement.
Geographical Factors and Practical Considerations
While one might argue that geographical proximity could facilitate free movement, practical considerations, such as labor market needs and national interests, often override such theoretical benefits. For Japan, the current shortage of skilled workers with language proficiency and a cosmopolitan outlook suggests that any shift towards free movement would be gradual, if at all.
Moreover, the EU, with its diverse member states, has different labor market dynamics and political priorities. Any move towards free movement would require substantial political consensus and could face significant resistance from various EU member states.
Conclusion: The Long-Term Outlook
While the possibility of free movement between Japan and the EU cannot be completely ruled out, it appears highly improbable in the near future. Existing visa policies and historical precedents do not support the automatic implementation of free movement following a trade agreement. However, as the global landscape evolves and needs change, the potential for such a scenario remains a topic of interest for policymakers and analysts.