When will there be major innovations in the energy industry? This is a question that has been on the minds of many as the world seeks cleaner and more affordable energy solutions. To answer this, we must first understand the concept of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and the rarity of black swan events.
The Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Framework
A useful framework to evaluate the maturity of a technology is the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale. This scale ranges from TRL-1 to TRL-9, allowing us to gauge the progression from university research to widespread industrial application. Each level represents a different stage of development and deployment.
TRL-1 to TRL-3: Theoretical and Conceptual Phase
At the lower end of the scale, TRL-1 to TRL-3, we find the realm of cutting-edge university work and theoretical concepts. This is where groundbreaking ideas and conjecture prevail. Technological breakthroughs at this stage are rare and often lack the practical application required to change the world. It’s where misguided and idealistic notions often originate, promising the world but rarely delivering.
TRL-4 to TRL-6: Pilot Testing and Prototyping Phase
Moving up the scale, TRL-4 to TRL-6, we see partnerships between universities, research labs, and industry. The basic technology is known, but its potential limits remain uncertain. Key aspects such as reliability, longevity, and economic viability are being explored and shaped. This phase is where significant progress is made, but practical implementation still faces challenges.
TRL-7 to TRL-9: Industrial Adoption Phase
In the higher levels, TRL-7 to TRL-9, the focus shifts to industrial adoption. Factories are running, and products are reaching the market. Technologies at this stage are well-established and ready for widespread use. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear, and fossil fuels are examples of mature technologies that have reached TRL-9. Their strengths, weaknesses, and costs are well understood, and they have demonstrated their capacity to meet energy needs.
Black Swan Events and Revolutionary Changes
While the future of energy innovations holds promise, it’s important to recognize that revolutionary changes are extremely rare. We refer to these rare disruptive events as “black swan events.” These are unpredictable and highly impactful occurrences that fundamentally alter the landscape of technology and industry. Examples include the introduction of the personal computer, the internet, and smartphones. They are few and far between, and relying on them for future plans is a risky proposition.
As you ponder the future of energy, it’s wise to be optimistic but not overly optimistic. Instead of relying on speculative black swan events, focus on the steady progress being made through the practical application of existing technologies and the ongoing research and development of TRL-5 and 6 technologies.
The Path Forward
The good news is that many creative minds are actively working on making energy cleaner and more affordable. Innovations in solar, wind, and other renewable technologies continuously evolve, bringing us closer to a sustainable energy future. However, it’s crucial to approach these developments with a realistic perspective and not over-estimate their transformative potential.
By understanding the TRL framework and the rarity of black swan events, we can plan more effectively and contribute to a sustainable energy future through incremental advancements and sustainable practices.
Stay hopeful, but plan prudently.