Introduction

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India's economy has witnessed significant growth over recent years, with several key economic indicators pointing towards a positive trajectory. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the GDP growth and sectoral performance for the fiscal year 2023-24, highlighting real GDP, nominal GDP, and real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rates. Additionally, it delves into the sectoral composition and growth rates of India's economy, offering insights into the different sectors contributing to this growth.

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Real GDP and Nominal GDP Growth Rates

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The real GDP for fiscal year 2023-24 is estimated to grow by 8.2%, surpassing the growth rate of 7.0% in 2022-23. This significant increase is a testament to the robust economic performance. Correspondingly, the nominal GDP is forecasted to grow by 9.6%, up from 14.2% in the previous fiscal year. The strong performance of both real and nominal GDP underscores the sustained economic activity in India.

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Real GVA Growth

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The real GVA is estimated to grow by 7.2% in fiscal year 2023-24, a notable increase over the 6.7% growth in 2022-23. This growth can be attributed to the substantial growth in the manufacturing sector, which expanded by 9.9% in 2023-24, compared to a decline of 2.2% in 2022-23. The mining and quarrying sector also contributed positively, growing by 7.1% in 2023-24, up from 1.9% in 2022-23.

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The subsequent quarterly analysis of GDP and GVA further solidifies this positive trend. For the final quarter (Q4) of 2023-24, the real GDP is estimated to grow by 7.8%, while the nominal GDP is forecasted to increase by 9.9%. These figures highlight the sustained economic momentum in the final quarter of the fiscal year.

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Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates

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The sectoral composition of the nominal GVA for fiscal year 2023-24 is as follows:

r r Primary Sector: This sector includes agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, and mining/ quarrying. A strong focus on these areas can help stabilize the overall economy, especially with contributions from agriculture, which is pivotal in a largely agrarian country like India.r Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, along with electricity, gas, water supply, other utility services, and construction sectors, form this part. The manufacturing sector, in particular, showed a robust growth of 9.9% in 2023-24, indicating a healthy industrial outlook.r Tertiary Sector: This encompasses trade, hotels, transport, communication, and services related to broadcasting, financial services, real estate, professional services, and public administration. These sectors witnessed a growth of 7.1%, reflecting strong service sector performance.r r r

The quarterly growth rates for GVA in the final quarter (Q4) of 2023-24 are equally impressive:

r r Real GVA grew by 6.3% in Q4 of 2023-24, compared to 6.7% in the matching quarter of the previous fiscal year.r Nominal GVA saw a growth rate of 8.0% in Q4 of 2023-24, marking an improvement from the 7.2% growth witnessed in the same quarter of 2022-23.r r r

Methodology and Data Sources

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The analysis and estimation of these economic indicators were compiled through the benchmark-indicator method. This approach involves using indicators from the previous year and extrapolating them based on current performance data. The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) for the fiscal year 2023-24 were released on 29th February 2024, and these have since been revised to incorporate the latest information on relevant indicators.

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The sector-wise estimates were derived using a variety of sources, including:

r r Industry Performance Indicators (e.g., Index of Industrial Production)r Financial Performance of Listed Companiesr Advance Estimates of Crop Productionr Production of Major Livestock Productsr Annual and quarterly reports on various economic activitiesr Official reports from government agenciesr r r

The preliminary GDP estimates can be subject to revisions due to improved data coverage and inputs. The next set of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June 2024-25 is scheduled for release on 30th August 2024.

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