Strategies for National Security in Weak Military States: Preventing Unprovoked Invasion

" "As Theodore Roosevelt once said, 'Speak softly and carry a big stick. You’ll go far.' The best way to ensure deterrence and survival, especially when a nation's military might is insufficient to fend off an attack, is not through bluster and antagonism. Running around poking sticks into opponents' nests is a surefire way to invite a swift and unpleasant response. Instead, focusing on the means to repel and retaliate against any unprovoked attack is the path toward either a Pyrrhic Victory or comprehensive defeat of the aggressor.

The Initial Step: Communication and Negotiation

The first and most important step is to engage in dialogue. The potential invader must be allowed to present its case for a casus belli—justification for war. These discussions must be brought before the United Nations (UN) for scrutiny. If the object nation is innocent of any great harm to the potential aggressor, there is no casus belli. The UN should intervene and ensure that the nation at risk of invasion is as fully prepared for defense as possible. Attacking another nation without full justification is the worst crime humanity can commit, and those opposing such aggression are acting with the highest virtue.

Historical Examples and Lessons

If these rules had been followed as a moral imperative, several recent conflicts could have been prevented. For instance, the post-2014 Ukrainian coup d'état that led to the invasion of Donbas and Lysichansk could have been averted. Similarly, the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Somalia, as well as the Vietnam War, might have been avoided. The West is currently guilty of some of the most egregious criminality in its military behavior.

Deterrence Through Military Preparedness and Perception

Arms were originally created for defense. As nations grew more aggressive, they built larger armies and navies with the intent to attack and seize resources and territory. Throughout history, nations have used a combination of superior military power, alliances, and perceived threats to deter potential invaders. For instance, the British Empire relied on its massive navy to keep the riff-raff at bay. However, it is often not the actual power that deters an opponent but the perception of that power.

Nuclear Deterrence and Perception

Threatening an enemy with nuclear deterrence can bring the rest of the world to one's doorstep, with allies and adversaries alike. This creates a complex web of alliances and rivalries. By increasing the threat, one may inadvertently increase the number of potential enemies. Therefore, while a nuclear deterrent can be a powerful tool, it must be wielded with caution and an understanding of the psychological impact on other nations.

In conclusion, the key to preventing unprovoked invasion in a weak military state lies in effective communication, military preparedness, and strategic deterrence. Through these measures, nations can ensure their own security and deter potential aggressors without resorting to aggressive or destabilizing behavior.