What has Russia Benefited from the War it Started in Ukraine?

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has brought into sharp focus not only the human toll but also the economic and social ramifications for the aggressor, Russia. While the global focus is often on the humanitarian aspects and the sanctions these actions invoke, there are several subtle benefits that Russia might have reaped from the war.

Reduction in ‘Surplus Population’ and Lowered Unemployment Rates

One of the less discussed yet potentially significant outcomes of the war is the reduction in the 'surplus population' of Russia. With a significant number of criminals and the marginally employable having either died or been incapacitated, Russia's unemployment rate has likely seen a decline. The term 'surplus population' refers to those who were previously considered redundant or bottom-of-the-barrel in the labor market, contributing to a reduction in the pool of those without jobs. Coupled with a drop in prison population, this could indicate a shift in Russia's demographic and labor force dynamics.

The Arms Industry's Windfall

Another clear beneficiary of the Ukrainian conflict is the arms industry. The war has provided a massive surge in demand for military equipment, somewhat mirroring the situation the United States faced during the Vietnam War after President Kennedy's assassination. The arms industry, once heavily subsidy-dependent and less profitable, now enjoys a boom period as countries and military forces from around the world invest heavily in modernizing and expanding their arsenals.

The Cost-Benefit Analysis

Despite these potential positives, the overall equation is decidedly negative for Russia. Any savings from reduced prison costs is overshadowed by the catastrophic war expenses. While some individuals might find themselves with fuller wallets due to the increased earnings from the arms industry, the broader population continues to suffer. The sanctions imposed by the international community have also tightened, constraining Russia's economic growth and financial maneuverability.

Potential for Democratic Change

There is a theoretical idea that the war might lead to a shift in political dynamics, potentially dismantling the existing authoritarian regime and fostering democratic change. However, this remains a speculative notion without concrete evidence of such movements gaining traction. The brutal reality of the ongoing war and the suffering it imposes on civilians create a complex and often oppressive environment, which is not conducive to immediate democratization.

Conclusion

The benefits for Russia from the war in Ukraine, while existing in certain sectors and for a select few, are largely overshadowed by the immense costs and negative impacts. The war has not only brought ruin to the Ukrainian people but also placed a heavy burden on Russia's economy and society. The question remains whether any of these indirect benefits are substantial enough to outweigh the devastating and long-lasting consequences.

The rational underpinnings of war, when one considers its costs, benefits, and impact on society, are often far removed from the irrational hatred toward democracy and freedom that motivated the conflict in the first place.