Predictions for Indian Stock Markets in April: Nifty and Sensex Analysis

The India SENSEX Stock Market Index is anticipated to trade at around 24,000 points by the end of this quarter, based on the global macro models and expert analyses from Trading Economics. For the longer term, it is estimated to reach around 22,000 points in twelve months' time. The month of March has been exceptionally positive for the Indian stock markets, with significant gains observed, as discussed below.

A Bullscape in March

March has been an especially favorable period for the Indian stock markets. The Nifty index, a key indicator, has witnessed a remarkable upward movement from its lowest point of 6,900 to its current levels of 7,700, reflecting a substantial 11% growth. Both the SENSEX and Bank Nifty, which are crucial indices for Indian stock markets, have similarly experienced significant gains.

Trigger Factors

The Nifty's performance in March was largely driven by fundamental improvements. A double bottom breakout on March 2nd, following the budget announcement and changes made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to bank regulatory capital rules, created a strong buying demand. This breakout was further cemented by a breakaway gap, indicating a robust buying interest at the level. Despite the gap, the Nifty faced resistance at 7,580, a level it broke eventually, closing above 7,600.

Market Dynamics

Following this break, the Nifty has faced tough resistance at the 7,580 level. However, recent trading has indicated that markets have responded positively to global cues and the outcomes of monetary policies from Europe and America. After trading within ranges for the past 7-10 days, the Nifty decisively broke the 7,580 resistance and closed above 7,600 today.

Looking Ahead

Having broken the significant resistance at 7,580, this level now serves as a strong support for the market. The upcoming quarters are crucial for quarterly results and annual outcomes for the 2015-16 year. Although earnings have been weak over the past two quarters, the market anticipates a revival in this quarter, potentially led by the Information Technology (IT) sector. With consistent buying pressure, and Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) showing support since the beginning of this month, the Nifty could potentially move towards 7,950 in the next two weeks, provided the 7,580 level holds firm.

Market Outlook

While expert predictions and market analysis provide insights, it's important to remember that no one can accurately predict the future. Many successful investors focus on finding the right companies rather than solely following market movements. If you're planning to invest, doing your research and picking the right stocks can lead to better outcomes.

Happy Investing!