Navigating the 2024 Presidential Election: Biden’s Path to 50 Percent and Beyond
As we approach the 2024 Presidential Election, the question of whether Joe Biden can secure over 50 percent of the popular vote looms large. However, as we’ve seen in past elections, a high percentage of the popular vote does not guarantee a victory. The electoral college system sets the real stage, and securing 270 electoral votes is what truly matters.
Possible Path to 50 Percent
Given current polling data, there’s a reasonable possibility that Joe Biden could achieve a majority in the popular vote. This is primarily due to his strong performance in key swing states and his ability to mobilize a vocal base. However, securing this popular vote majority doesn’t automatically translate to electoral victory.
The Ever-Present Electoral College
The electoral college remains the decisive factor in determining the winner of the 2024 election. With 538 electoral votes to win, candidates need 270 to claim victory. As of now, the focus is on a few key battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Joe Biden can hold these states and secure them as he did in 2020, he stands a good chance of achieving 270 electoral votes.
The outcome in these states is particularly crucial because they were pivotal in 2020. Biden won Arizona by a narrow margin, and both Pennsylvania and Michigan swung in his favor. Given his strong performance in these states, it’s not out of the question for him to repeat or even improve on his performance.
Fear Tactics and Third-Party Threats
It's important to recognize that any attempt to sway the election through unregulated ballots, such as those mailed out, could lead to legal and ethical concerns. These tactics, while potentially attractive to certain segments of the electorate, carry significant risks. History shows that efforts to manipulate election results often backfire, leading to legal challenges and widespread rejection.
Furthermore, the presence of third-party candidates, such as Kanye West, can further complicate the race. While Kanye's campaign may garner attention, it's unlikely to significantly alter the dynamics of the electoral college race. The strategic focus remains on the primary candidates and the states where key votes are up for grabs.
Voter Demographics and Political Climate
Biden's ability to appeal to certain voter demographics—often described as the "senile vote" and those who forgive past transgressions—is a key factor in his campaign. His focus on these groups underscores his understanding of the electoral landscape. However, the political climate remains fluid, and any significant changes in voter sentiment could shift the balance.
On the other hand, criticisms of Trump and his administration are not without foundation. The actions of the Democratic Party in cities like Portland and Chicago have been seen as part of a larger effort to smear Trump. However, public opinion is increasingly recognizing the true nature of these efforts. As the election approaches, it’s evident that the general public is growing more skeptical of such tactics.
The Forecast for Election 2024
The forecast for the 2024 election suggests a high likelihood of a Trump victory, particularly if he can hold onto key states. Trump's rhetorical prowess and strategic positioning in key regions make him a formidable opponent. If Trump can secure victories in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, or any of these states, he could secure a 270–268 win.
Ultimately, the election will hinge on these states and the performance of the candidates in the remaining months. Whether Biden can replicate his 2020 success or exceed it, and whether Trump can maintain or improve his performance in key states, will shape the final outcome.