Nashville vs. Atlanta: Population Trends in the Southern United States

The question of whether Nashville will eventually surpass Atlanta as the most populous city in the South has been a topic of interest for several years. Both cities have experienced significant population growth, but the trajectory and factors influencing this growth differ, making it difficult to predict a definitive outcome.

Population Growth in Nashville and Atlanta

As of my last update in 2023, Nashville and Atlanta have seen notable population increases. Nashville's growth has been particularly rapid, owing to a booming economy, a robust job market, and its appeal as a cultural and entertainment hub. However, Atlanta has a larger metropolitan area and has historically been a major economic center, providing it with advantages in maintaining its population size.

This growth can be seen in recent data:

Nashville: 692,000 people (city proper) Atlanta: 479,000 people (city proper) Athens-Clarke County, Georgia (part of the Atlanta metro area): 582,000 people (city proper) Nashville-Murfreesboro-Columbus, TN-FL (metro area): 1.98 million people Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA (metro area): 6.08 million people

While the city proper population of Nashville is ahead of Atlanta, the metro area figures show that Atlanta remains ahead. However, the growth rates are also significant to consider. If current trends continue, Nashville may close the gap with Atlanta, but predicting a clear outcome is challenging due to various influencing factors.

Comparing Nashville and Atlanta in the Southern Context

When considering the South, the definition can vary. Traditional Southern states (top left map) include Atlanta and Nashville in the top 5 cities. Yet, the South can be defined more broadly, including states like Florida (bottom left map). In this broader context, other Southern cities like Jacksonville, Memphis, and Charlotte are significantly larger than Nashville and Atlanta.

According to FiveThirtyEight's polling, if we consider the definition of "southern" as including Texas, Houston is the most populous city in the South with 2.35 million people. Other major Texas cities like San Antonio, Dallas, and Austin all have larger populations than Nashville, with annual growth rates around or above 12,000 people:

Houston: 2.35 million people (18K annual growth) San Antonio: 1.54 million people (21K annual growth) Dallas: 1.35 million people (12K annual growth) Austin: 980,000 people (16K annual growth) Fort Worth: 934,000 people (19K annual growth) El Paso: 679,000 people (-300 annual growth)

Nashville, with a population close to 700,000 people and 3,000 annual growth, is significantly smaller than these cities, and its growth rate is much lower than that of many other Southern cities.

Implications for the Future

The ongoing population trends suggest that Nashville is unlikely to surpass Atlanta as the most populous city in the South unless current growth rates significantly increase. Economic opportunities, housing availability, and quality of life factors all play crucial roles in population dynamics.

Beyond the traditional Southern states, the broader definition including Texas brings other cities to the forefront in terms of population and growth. Cities like Houston lead the pack, with significant population figures and steady growth rates.

Final Thoughts

While Nashville's growth is commendable, the historical and current data suggest that Atlanta, Houston, and other major cities in the Southern United States are likely to maintain their positions in terms of population. Nuances in regional definitions and evolving economic and social factors will continue to shape the urban landscape in the South.