Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam's Vision for India's Economic Growth: A Detailed Forecast

Thank you for asking! Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam, a prominent economist, has provided insights into the potential growth of India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the coming years. This article delves into his predictions and projections, offering a comprehensive view of India's economic trajectory.

Trends and Projections for India's Economy

According to Balasubramaniam, India's economy is expected to rebound significantly in the next few years. The economic landscape for the 2021-2022 fiscal year is anticipated to show a net real growth of 0.67%. This growth is a recovery from the severe contraction of -7.3% recorded in the 2020-2021 fiscal year. In fact, the economy is expected to experience a growth of 6.63% over the course of two quarters.

For the fiscal year 2022-2023, the predicted growth rate is estimated at a more realistic 5.30%. This projection suggests an economic expansion that is slightly tempered yet promising. If these trends hold true, the GDP is expected to increase significantly, reaching approximately 2.90 trillion to 3.05 trillion Indian Rupees by the end of the fiscal year 2023-2024. These figures are derived from the assumption that the economy does not undergo further decline and that the COVID-19 pandemic has been permanently resolved by March 31, 2023. Additionally, it is assumed that the third wave of the pandemic does not occur.

Further Growth Projections

Beyond 2023-2024, Balasubramaniam envisions continued growth. By 2025, it is estimated that the GDP will touch 3.30 trillion Indian Rupees, showcasing a steady path of recovery and expansion. By 2029-2030, the GDP is projected to reach an impressive 5 trillion Indian Rupees. These numbers are based on the optimistic assumption that the economy remains stable and that external factors do not cause any further disruptions.

Impact of Exclusions and Pandemic Management

It is crucial to note that these projections are subject to various factors. Excluding the effects of demonetization (Demonetization or "Demo") and Goods and Services Tax (GST), and assuming that the COVID-19 pandemic is managed more effectively, even with a 30% hypothetical improvement, the economy would have performed better. Specifically, without these factors, the GDP for the year 2023 would have been around 3.453 trillion Indian Rupees, and the forecast for 2030 would have been 5.610 trillion Indian Rupees.

In conclusion, while the road to achieving these projections is not without challenges, the strategy and forecasts provided by experts like Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam offer a clear roadmap for the future. However, continuous monitoring and proactive measures are essential to ensure these projections become realities.