Is the Bull Market Already Back? Analysis and Insights

With the recent Halving event in April 2024, many enthusiasts are wondering if the long-awaited bull market is finally here. The Halving event, a unique feature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), where the reward for mining is halved, often signals significant changes in market dynamics. This article delves into the current state of the market and analyzes potential indicators that you can use to form your own conclusions.

Market Cycles and Whales’ Influence

The crypto market, much like traditional finance, operates in cycles. In 2020, many believed that the mania top would occur in December 2021. However, as we saw, the Whales and market controllers brought about this top on April 30, 2022. Since then, the coin boom has subsided, leading to renewed speculation about a 2025 top. While many on crypto Twitter are displaying Bitcoin halvening charts and making similar predictions, the reality is often influenced by market controllers who ensure the opposite of public expectations.

Comment on Market Dynamics: I personally believe that we will see a mania top in December 2024 and that the true bull market will start early in 2025. However, most of the significant profits are made during the bear market, as Warren Buffet has famously stated. This period provides unique opportunities to acquire game-changing coins at lower prices.

Market Indicators and Community Sentiment

Many are calling for a return to the bull market. Here are a few indicators to consider:

Pepe Run: Recent activity in the Pepe meme, often used to signal market sentiment, indicates a potential uptrend. Other cryptocurrencies have also shown notable activity, suggesting broader market interest. AIBB Token: The token associated with AIBB (Alpha Insurance Blockchain) is showing promise with scheduled listings, which could attract more attention and investment. Market Valuations: The NASDAQ is currently at an all-time high, driven by major tech companies. However, the broader market sentiment is complex, with significant discrepancies between large tech giants and newer startups.

The Illusion of Bull and Bear Markets

While terms like "bull market" and "bear market" are commonly used, they are more of a narrative construct than a factual description of market conditions. Bull and bear markets are terms often used by journalists and editors to attract readers and sell ad revenue. In reality, the market is driven by mathematics, specifically in the form of business-to-business transactions and venture capital investments.

Our current economic landscape is heavily influenced by digital advertising, with major players like Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook dominating the market. These companies are backed by deep pockets in venture capital firms, but their strategies often don't align with technological capabilities. Many startups, even those raising significant funding, are struggling to become profitable, with a substantial portion of their funding going towards advertising on these tech giants' platforms.

Some notable examples include:

Ad-funded Startups: Companies like AirBnB, despite raising over a billion dollars in multiple funding rounds, are still not profitable. A large portion of their funding continues to go into advertising. Shopify’s Valuation: Despite not being profitable from the start, Shopify has become worth over a hundred billion dollars. Nikola Electric Vehicle: This company, born out of the ashes of the pandemic, was immediately valued at over thirty billion dollars despite having no tangible product beyond a concept video.

The phenomenon of creating applications for every industry sounds great in theory, but when management issues are swept under the rug, valuations can climb to unsustainable levels. This landscape underscores the importance of scrutinizing the underlying fundamentals rather than relying solely on market sentiment or popular terms like "bull market."

Conclusion

While the term "bull market" is often used to describe a period of financial optimism, it is crucial to approach this with a critical eye. The market's true indicators lie in the underlying business operations, valuations, and the fundamentals driving each investment. Keep these factors in mind as you navigate the crypto and broader financial markets. Far from being an illusion, a true bull market is characterized by sustainable growth, profitability, and a solid foundation in technology and business practices.