Is Donald Trump's 2020 Re-election a Certainty?
With the rapid changes in political landscapes, particularly in the U.S., it's not uncommon to find many people bet on who will win the upcoming elections. As of February 2020, the odds favor Donald Trump being re-elected, but is this certainty truly warranted? This article will explore the latest polling data, historical trends, and current political climate to determine if betting on Trump's re-election is a wise move.
Current Polling Data and Trends
As of February 2020, Trump was losing to each of the top six Democratic candidates in every non-partisan national poll. Polls indicated that Trump was losing to Michael Bloomberg by nine percentage points. These figures suggest that statistically, it is highly unlikely for Trump to win the electoral college in 2020.
The Role of Foreign Interference
It’s important to acknowledge that Trump is likely to receive assistance from the Kremlin, as he often does. In 2016, the Russian government was involved in the U.S. election through cyber operations and information warfare. Additionally, Trump’s campaign plans to use misleading narratives about his opponents, suggesting a rigged or gerrymandered vote. The electoral college, rather than the popular vote, is responsible for selecting the president, which poses a significant obstacle for candidates who do not win the majority in states.
The 2018 Midterm Elections: A Crucial Turning Point
While the Republican party typically performs better in midterm elections, the 2018 midterm saw a massive shift in the voting landscape. Democratic voters outvoted Republican voters by nearly 9 million votes, marking a significant increase from the 2016 presidential election. This trend suggests a growing majority for the Democratic party, which poses a substantial challenge for Trump’s re-election bid.
Approval Ratings and Public Support
In recent polls, Trump’s approval ratings are consistently below 50%. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight keeps a running amalgamation of polls, which have shown that Trump has never been above 42% in these adjusted polls. At best, his approval rating is around 44%, highlighting the challenge faced by a candidate running with such low support.
The State of the U.S. Economy and Trump's Economic Policies
Trump's economic policies have not been well-received by many. Despite claiming a 3% GDP growth, Trump's economists have revised this number to 2.3%, which is considered lackluster. The economic stimulus provided under his administration has largely benefited the richest Americans, with significant cuts to social programs like Medicare and Social Security to fund tax cuts. Critics argue that these policies are not benefiting the majority of Americans, and this could impact his re-election prospects.
Evidence and Revelations: The Apprentice Tapes
Adding to the political uncertainty, there are rumors of tapes from Trump's "The Apprentice" television show. According to Tom Arnold, these tapes could reveal Trump's personal conduct, which might not be favorable. While the authenticity of the tapes is still in question, Republicans might want to consider their potential impact on Trump's re-election campaign.
Given all the abovementioned factors, betting against Trump's re-election does not seem to be a bad idea. With reduced popular support, a flawed economy under his leadership, and a growing need for political change, the likelihood of a Trump victory in 2020 is diminishing. Americans are weary of constant criticism and struggle with issues that Trump has not adequately addressed. The nation seems more prepared to see a change in leadership, paving the way for a potential Democratic victory.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, staying informed and aware of these trends is crucial for making well-informed decisions. The path to the White House in 2020 is fraught with challenges for Donald Trump, and betting against him may indeed pay off.