Is Donald Trump Going to Win by a Small Margin Like Brexit?
The Brexit vote was not a surprise; the polls had the Leave and Stay camps about equal. In other words, they were biased for Stay. People use the term 'Brexit effect,' but with Trump, it is not entirely valid. The New York Times corrected the myth: 'The polls consistently indicated that there was a very real chance that Britain would vote to leave. Polling averages even showed "Leave" with a lead...'
Why Trump Will Not Win by a Small Margin
Trummering the idea that Trump might win by a small margin, I believe this to be incorrect. I predicted the outcome of the Brexit vote months before and also the Conservative win the year prior. Trump, being divisive, too racist, and too stupid, is an issue. Anyone who needs support from Latinos should not insult and upset them. The same applies to the women's vote. What brought it home to me last night was the stark difference in his speech, which was totally negative and consisted of his usual rubbish about 'crooked' Hillary. He did not have a single positive message for his campaign, not for most of the election, other than the hollow promise of 'making America great again,' but he never explained how.
On the other hand, Hillary Clinton had a positive and uplifting message, talking about building bridges and working for everyone. The difference between the two campaigns was dramatic and became very wide towards the end. Clinton had numerous well-known supporters, while Trump could only come up with his family as his best support. This inability to mobilize support from a broader base suggests a significant problem with his campaign.
The Inevitability of Hillary Clinton's Victory
There is no argument that Hillary Clinton is already chosen as the next president of the United States, and nothing is going to prevent that from happening.
A "Trump" Surprise to Come
However, I do believe there will be a significant 'Trump' surprise that will rumble for months as people try to process what is happening in the free world. There is a fearful spirit in the general leadership and among many people today that makes them feel uncomfortable about breaking away from the apparent world powers. But we are a more grown-up and independent people than is generally believed. We are capable of working well in the sandbox, but we do not tolerate lies and bullies. Smooth-talking individuals who accuse those standing in the way of their hidden agendas do not sit well with free thinkers who remember their roots and identity as Americans.