What Makes Iran the Most Powerful Country in the Middle East Despite Israel Being Present?
Iran, with a population of 87 million people (second only to Egypt in the Middle East), boasts a rich tapestry that includes a significant Shiite Muslim population. This religious and demographic factor plays a crucial role in understanding Iran's geopolitical influence. Historically, the Sunni and Shiite sects have been at odds, their rivalry spanning over a millennium.
Underestimating Iran's Power
Despite these historical tensions, Western nations tend to underestimated Iran's capabilities. The primary constraint on Iran's emergence as a dominant force within the Middle East is internal division. However, examining the historical context, such as Iran's success in the Iran-Iraq War (backed by Western nations) and Iran's strategic interventions in the Middle East, reveals a different narrative.
For instance, Iran emerged victorious in the Iran-Iraq War, maintaining its sovereignty and extending its influence in the aftermath. Subsequently, Iran played a pivotal role in reviving militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. With Bashar al-Assad on the brink of losing control in Syria, Iran's presence in the region is anticipated to make a significant impact. Additionally, Israel's recent apprehension over Iran's missile program highlights the growing power balance.
Iran as a Proxy Player in the Middle East
While Iran does not directly control land in the Middle East, it effectively wields influence through proxies. For example, when Israel targets Iranian weapons bound for Syria or Lebanon, those bombings are often justified by the West as necessary to prevent Iranian intimidation. Similarly, strikes in the West Bank and Gaza further illustrate how Iran leverages these areas for strategic advantage. Israel's inability to strike at Iran directly, due to international law, ensures a relative safety for Iran from Israeli airstrikes.
Iran vs. Israel: A Comparative Analysis
Among the Muslim countries in the Middle East, Iran is certainly a dominant force. However, in the region, Israel holds the upper hand. While Iran's military boasts significant numbers and resources, Israel enjoys a qualitative edge. As Roberts, the deputy director at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in Britain, notes: "In a very general sense it’s no secret or cutting-edge analysis that Israel’s military is the best-equipped and best-trained in the whole region. But some sections of [Iran’s military] are battle-tested."
The Israeli military, which has engaged in numerous wars and has been tested in the crucible of conflict, is renowned for its combat effectiveness. This extensive experience gives Israel a strategic advantage over Iran, although Iran's military divisions have seen action and have combat experience.
Conclusion
The Middle East power dynamics are complex, with Iran standing as a formidable force, albeit one that operates through proxies and leverage. In contrast, Israel remains the dominant regional military power, with its ability to project force and maintain regional stability. The ongoing rivalry and interplay between these two nations continue to shape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
As Western nations grapple with geopolitical challenges, it is crucial to understand these dynamics. The Middle East is a region characterized by interwoven alliances, proxy wars, and strategic interests, where Iran and Israel play key roles.