How Russia Benefits from a Weak European Union

For nation-states, having weak neighbors can be strategically advantageous. The dominance of the U.S. over Mexico and Canada is a prime example. Similarly, Russia's strategic stance can be influenced by a weakened European Union. While this may not directly benefit the Russian people, it certainly could benefit their regime and geopolitical interests.

Populist Leaders and Nationalism

Populist leaders often thrive on nationalist sentiments. Russian leaders understand the value in expanding Russian influence across Europe. This strategy can be seen as a modern version of the familiar 'Make Russia Great Again' slogan championed by Donald Trump. Large powers prefer dealing with individual nations rather than blocs like the European Union, which explains the antipathy shown by both Trump and Putin towards the EU. This is reminiscent of the ancient principle of 'divide et impera'—divide and rule.

Unfortunately, there are still some die-hard politicians in Russia who long for the days when individual European nations were more amenable to Russian suzerainty. However, they fail to realize that the world has changed. Just as individual European nations could be isolated and targeted, so could Britain. The geopolitical landscape has shifted, and old strategies no longer guarantee the same results.

Re-asserting Influence and Subtlety

Russia can capitalize on a weakened EU to reassert its lost sphere of influence, reminiscent of the Soviet era. The Baltic states and Eastern Europe present opportunity for Russian resurgence. By choosing to play countries against each other, Russia can negotiate beneficial contracts for its natural resource exports. The profits from these deals could be reinvested to further penetrate the European economies.

With enhanced economic clout, Russia could use the threat of cutting off natural resource supplies or increasing prices to wield political leverage. This strategy is based on the idea that when consumers become heavily dependent on a resource, it's easier to extract concessions in other areas. For example, Russia could threaten to cut off gas supply or hike prices, forcing countries to bend to its will.

The EU's Weakness and Russian Opportunism

Russia sees an opportunity in the EU's current state, particularly with Donald Trump's reduced interest in NATO and support for the EU project. Trump's support for Brexit further strengthens Russia's position. If the EU were dismantled, allowing individual countries to follow their own paths, it would be significantly easier for Russia to subdue smaller nations and even become involved in their internal politics.

Consider the Montenegro coup plot from 2016, where Russian nationals were involved in attempting to prevent Montenegro from joining NATO. Such incidents are likely to occur more frequently in other European countries if the EU were to disintegrate. The fragmented nature of a weaker EU would provide ample opportunity for Russian influence to spread across the continent.

In conclusion, a weakened European Union offers Russia numerous strategic advantages. However, it's crucial for the EU to remain united and resilient to prevent such power imbalances from undermining the stability and security of the region.