Does Tax Reform Ensure a Trump Victory in 2020?
Despite the current
tax reform efforts, there are several reasons to believe that they will not guarantee a victory for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. This analysis will delve into the economic and political factors, as well as the public's potential reactions to the tax reform.
The Economic Context
The economy has been in a prolonged upward trend for nearly 9 years, which is an anomaly compared to the cyclical nature of economic booms and busts typically observed every 10-12 years. This extended period of economic growth sets the stage for the eventual occurrence of an economic downturn. While the exact timing of a downturn is uncertain, it is likely to happen before the 2020 presidential election. The primary concern will be how the incumbent, Donald Trump, responds to this downturn.
Moreover, the tax reform measures proposed may have a short-term impact on the economy, but many of the benefits are likely to expire or phase out after 2020. This means that the wealthy will retain their benefits, while the majority of the American public may find their cuts expiring. This inconsistency could further exacerbate economic inequality and dissatisfaction among the electorate.
The Political Landscape
Politics is a dynamic field, and a new social issue could easily divert public attention away from economic concerns. The American public is known to be easily distracted, which means that any new social or environmental issue could shift the focus of the electorate. This could impact the Democratic Party's ability to capitalize on economic dissatisfaction to challenge Trump's re-election.
For the Democrats to succeed in challenging Trump, they must undertake a significant reform and emerge as a truly progressive party. However, recent events have shown that the Democratic Party has moved in the opposite direction, partially due to internal conflict and the prioritization of other political issues.
Public Reactions and Critiques
The tax reform, while intended to attract Republican voters, has faced significant criticism. For instance, the projected 18 per week increase in pay for many workers, which is temporary and will likely diminish in 2019, does little to address the actual financial needs of many Americans. Meanwhile, companies are giving substantial bonuses and celebrating the tax cut, which includes huge corporate profits. When workers do not see a corresponding increase in their salaries, they will be unhappy.
Furthermore, the tax reform's alleged focus on wage increases through corporate tax cuts is seen as another form of government aid to businesses rather than a direct increase in workers' wages. This approach is viewed unfavorably, as it does not effectively address the underlying issue of wage stagnation. Workers are calling for a long-overdue raise, which would lead to increased spending and potentially more job creation.
Criticisms of Trump's Leadership
Many voters view President Trump as a leader who lacks the expertise and maturity to handle economic challenges effectively. They regard him as a narcissistic and petulant figure, particularly when it comes to managing the country's finances.
The tax reform is increasingly seen as another mistake that will weigh heavily on Trump's re-election prospects. As each day passes, more evidence emerges that the president is more interested in personal gain than the well-being of the American people. This perception could further erode his support and hinder his campaign for re-election in 2020.
In conclusion, while tax reform has been a central issue in recent political debates, it is unlikely to be the deciding factor in the 2020 election. Economic downturn, shifting public attention, and public dissatisfaction will play significant roles in the outcome. However, Trump's leadership and handling of these issues will be under intense scrutiny, potentially aiding the Democrats' efforts to unseat him.