Introduction: The Progress of Brexit as UK-Merkel Talks Unfold

I recently attended a joint news conference between the UK's Prime Minister Johnson and Germany's Chancellor Merkel, where more light was shed on the ongoing negotiations. Chancellor Merkel's comments highlighted the EU's position that the 'backstop' was only a contingency measure in the event that a technical solution to the border issue could not be found. To date, she stated that no credible evidence of such a solution has been provided.

Backstop and Technological Solutions

Merkel emphasized that if the UK could demonstrate a credible technical solution within the next 30 days, the backstop would no longer be necessary. Despite this, she expressed little hope for the UK to achieve this, given their past track record.

The EU's Trust and Skepticism

The EU, through Merkel's comments, has consistently shown skepticism towards the UK's claims, arguing that no demonstrated or detailed technical solution has been presented. This is a common stance taken by the EU, driven by the need for stability and the protection of the single market.

EU Leaders' Approaches: From Merkel to Macron

While Merkel was more diplomatic during the joint session, Macron is likely to be much more direct in his approach. Given his recent public disagreements with Johnson, including Johnson's derogatory comments about the French, it is evident that Macron seeks to address the ongoing breaches in diplomatic relations. Macron views the Brexit crisis as an opportunity to prompt the UK to leave the EU sooner, cutting the 'gangrenous limb' to ensure the health of the union.

No-Deal Brexit's Inevitability

Both EU leaders, Merkel and Macron, seem to acknowledge the growing likelihood of a 'no-deal' Brexit. The EU is not expected to take any new steps to prevent this from happening, as it ultimately falls on the UK to resolve the current situation. This position aligns with the principle of shared responsibility, recognizing that the UK's decision to leave the EU led to the current predicament.

Johnson's 'Blame Game Management' Tactics

Johnson's approach to the Brexit negotiations, characterized as 'blame game management,' has been a significant factor in the support he received from Conservative MPs. By adopting a pro-remainer stance to become Prime Minister, Johnson effectively used a combination of electioneering and opportunism to maintain his position. This strategy has been instrumental in destabilizing other political parties and shifting public opinion.

Strategic Steps Towards 'No-Deal Brexit'

Johnson's plan to call a snap election is a strategic move to create a hung parliament, which would delay the Brexit process. This delay provides a window of opportunity to negotiate and propose alternative solutions with the EU, such as a Northern Ireland-only backstop. By leveraging the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and emphasizing the UK's sovereignty, Johnson aims to shape the narrative around the perceived minimality of the impact of Brexit.

Future Negotiations and Trade Deal

Following these strategic steps, the UK is expected to negotiate a limited trade deal with the EU, under the guise of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) not being a trade deal. This approach would see the UK remain in the common market during a transition period of 3 to 5 years, while actively negotiating a future trade agreement. Johnson's assertions that 'Brexit isn't so bad' and 'we still have no friction' reflect a positive stance, framing the outcome as a win for both parties.

In conclusion, the UK-EU negotiations remain highly uncertain, with the possibility of a 'no-deal' Brexit hanging over the proceedings. The EU's willingness to take a step back and leave the UK to resolve the current impasse demonstrates a focus on core union values and the need for stability. As the clock ticks, all eyes will be on the UK's next moves and negotiations.