Bihar Politics: Nitish Kumar's Changing Alignments and the Fracturing of the INDI Alliance

The political landscape of Bihar is in a state of flux as Nitish Kumar, the incumbent Chief Minister of the state, continues to navigate the complex world of alliances and political deals. Even as his motives and actions remain shrouded in suspicion, Nitish Kumar has repeatedly shifted his political affiliations, raising questions about his integrity and reliability. The current developments in Bihar hint at a potential realignment of political forces, particularly the INDI (India) Alliance, which is already showing signs of fragmentation.

Challenges for BJP

Even if Nitish Kumar expresses a desire to join the BJP's National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the party should hesitate before taking him back. There is growing skepticism about his true intentions and his history of political opportunism, which includes shifting between alliances to maintain his political power. His previous roles, particularly as an undercover agent for the BJP in the Maha (Maharashtra) Assembly, further cast doubt on his trustworthiness.

Given these concerns, the BJP might consider adopting a strategy similar to the one previously employed by the Khanna Congress, which conceded promises to trigger a break in alliances. By making such concessions, the BJP could encourage a split with Lalu Prasad Yadav, allowing Nitish Kumar to emerge as a participant in the alliance. However, this strategy must be carefully managed to avoid leaving him in a vulnerable position. A temporary imposition of President's Rule in the state could serve as a timely measure to ensure stability.

Implications for Bihar

The political landscape in Bihar is rapidly transforming. Nitish Kumar's potential resignation as Chief Minister, coupled with the impending dissolution of the state assembly, suggests that fresh elections are imminent. These elections will be held concurrently with Lok Sabha elections, ensuring that the political equation in the state remains fluid. The leadership of the newly elected chief minister will likely shift as Chirag Paswan, a key lieutenant of Nitish Kumar, joins the BJP.

However, these changes do not bode well for the INDI Alliance. Nitish Kumar's refusal to participate in INDI Alliance meetings, his rejection of leading the alliance, and his insulting remarks about Lalu Prasad Yadav and family have raised doubts about his loyalty. Indian media reports note that Nitish Kumar did not attend an INDI Alliance video conference and has outright refused to take part in the Padayatra (pilgrimage) led by RaGa.

The fracturing of alliances is not limited to Nitish Kumar. In West Bengal, Mamata Bandhopathyaya has openly challenged Sonia Gandhi, rejecting a proposed alliance for the upcoming state elections. Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has already distanced itself from the INDI Alliance, and Jagadish Shettar, a key figure in Tamil Nadu, has rejoined the BJP. These developments collectively point to a potential collapse of the INDI Alliance even before it commenced.

Conclusion

The political realignment in Bihar, marked by Nitish Kumar's shifting alliances, underscores the precarious nature of political relationships in India. As the state prepares for new elections, it is clear that the INDI Alliance is on thin ice. The BJP will need to navigate these complex dynamics with caution to ensure political stability and minimize the risk of further fragmentation.

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courtesy: Mint

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