Are Any Members of AOC, Tlaib, Omar, and Pressley at Risk of Losing Re-election in 2020?

In the complex landscape of U.S. congressional elections, the journey to re-election consists of two critical stages: primaries and main elections. These women—AOC, Tlaib, Omar, and Pressley—who are members of the Democratic Party, represent strongly Democratic districts. As a result, their re-election to the House of Representatives is highly probable. However, it's essential to closely examine the primary elections as they can sometimes reveal unexpected outcomes.

Primaries and Democratic Dominance

Let's break down the race for each of these lawmakers, focusing initially on the primaries.

Ayanna Pressley

In Massachusetts' district 7 (MA-07), Ayanna Pressley is facing no opposition. Running unopposed, she has no Democratic or Republican challengers. Given this scenario, she is destined to advance to the general election and secure her seat.

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)

AOC is representing New York's district 14 (NY-14). The race for her party's nomination has been largely decided, with AOC securing nearly 73% of the vote so far, though absentee ballots are yet to be counted. Despite six initial challengers, only three remained by primary election day. One notable challenger, former CNBC journalist Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, received significant donations from Wall Street and Trump supporters but was outspent and outperformed by AOC, securing only 20% of the votes. The remaining two challengers garnered just 5% and 3% of the votes.

Ilhan Omar

Minnesota's district 5 (MN-05) presents a slightly more competitive primary. Ilhan Omar faces several Democratic challengers, including Antone Melton-Meaux, a lawyer and professional mediator. As of the writing, Omar has led the primary with 57%, Melton-Meaux has 39%, while the remaining three candidates have garnered 1.6%, 1.1%, and 0.7% respectively. However, the primary results as of September 4th, confirmed these percentages with Omar securing the primary victory.

Rashida Tlaib

Rashida Tlaib of Michigan's district 13 (MI-13) faces a significant challenge from one Democratic challenger, Brenda Jones, the former head of the Detroit City Council. Tlaib had a previous encounter with Jones in the 2018 special election wherein Jones barely won, but Tlaib ultimately triumphed in the general election that same year. While Jones has been contesting the district for a shorter time, she is determined to reclaim the seat.

Variables Affecting Re-election

While these primaries suggest that re-election for these lawmakers is a strong possibility, it's important to consider external factors such as gerrymandering. Gerrymandering, the practice of manipulating district boundaries to benefit one political party, can sometimes create districts that are overwhelmingly Democratic or Republican, affecting both the primary and general elections.

One side effect of gerrymandering is that it can lead to the election of more extreme candidates from one party or the other. Although there is no evidence that these specific districts in which these lawmakers are running are intentionally gerrymandered, the phenomenon of extreme candidates securing victories is a real risk. Therefore, while the current polls and primary results indicate a high likelihood of their re-election, other variables like voter turnout and gerrymandering dynamics could still play a crucial role.