Analysis: Why Boris Johnson Likely Won't Resign in 2021
The rumblings of a possible resignation from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson have subsided, largely due to his victory in the 2019 general election and his ability to maintain his footing in the polls. Nevertheless, there are those who fervently hope for his departure, driven by various claims of misconduct and policy switches. Yet, the likelihood of Johnson stepping down remains slim.
Political Position and Party Support
Boris Johnson's political position in 2021 is notably strong. With a clear majority from the 2019 general election, Johnson has a mandate to govern and this gives him a certain level of insulation from internal party pressures. Moreover, despite various policy u-turns and public skepticism, he retains a strong lead in the polls, a testament to his political staying power.
Crucially, the current Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011 restricts the ability of Parliament to terminate a government unless a two-thirds majority of both Houses can be assembled. While 55 letters from Conservative MPs are required to trigger a vote of no confidence, so far only two have been openly written. This underscores the shaky political support needed to unseat Johnson without a full-party push.
Health and Electoral Strategy
Johnson's health has been a point of contention, with claims of 'long COVID' affecting his ability to govern. However, concrete evidence to support this theory is lacking. Instead, the focus on his health appears to be more of a strategic move to undermine his capabilities. From a policy perspective, the 2021 general election is quickly approaching, which further entrenches his position. Johnson has indicated a desire to call a general election in 2023, likely to capitalize on the uncertainty and change before the next scheduled elections in 2024.
Moral Leadership and Global Standing
Former Prime Minister Theresa May, in particular, has accused Johnson of abandoning global moral leadership. May has lashed out at Johnson for what she sees as a moral failure and the erosion of Britain's global standing. However, despite these criticisms, Johnson's leadership remains popular, at least from a domestic standpoint. His government's actions on various fronts have been met with mixed reviews, but policy stability has helped maintain his political base.
In conclusion, while the prospect of Boris Johnson resigning in 2021 is not impossible, the cumulative evidence suggests that he is likely to remain in office. His parliamentary majority, strong polling support, and ongoing strategic planning all point to a future where Johnson will continue to lead the United Kingdom.