Albania's Chances of Joining the EU Before Serbia
The question of whether Albania will join the European Union (EU) before Serbia continues to be a topic of debate among policymakers and interested parties within the region. Various factors, including geopolitical tensions and historical conflicts, appear to be influencing these chances.
Reasons Why Albania May Lag Behind Serbia
One often-cited reason for Albania's potential struggles to join the EU before Serbia is a statement from Spain, which allegedly believes that Kosovo and Albania should never be allowed to join the EU due to its support for Catalonia. However, this claim seems to be misleading and lacks concrete evidence. Regardless, the reality is that Kosovo's path to EU membership remains contingent on its full integration into the United Nations, a goal that appears unlikely in the near future.
Additionally, the living conditions in Albania are reported to be significantly worse compared to those in Serbia. This disparity could make it challenging for Albania to meet the stringent criteria required for EU membership, particularly in terms of improving governance, economic stability, and human rights. Consequently, it appears less likely that Albania could join the EU before Serbia.
Moreover, Albania and Kosovo's potential path to EU membership could be impeded by the tense relationship between Kosovo and Serbia. The unresolved status of Kosovo is a significant challenge that neither Albania nor Kosovo can ignore. If Albania were to merge with Kosovo, it would likely encounter strong opposition from the EU. As such, both countries' prospects of EU membership seem intertwined with the resolution of this issue.
Serbia's Chances of EU Membership
It is important to note that even if Albania were to join the EU before Serbia, this outcome would not be guaranteed, given Serbia's complex political and historical context. Serbia's bid for EU membership has been complicated by past conflicts and injustices, leading to a somewhat low probability of it joining the EU in the near future. Serbia's stance regarding its "special military operation" (referring to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine) and its historical conflicts with its neighbors have further strained its relationship with the EU.
According to some experts, it is possible that the EU’s accession process for the remaining Balkan countries may be influenced by a group accession process, as seen with the accession of Slovenia and Croatia. If Serbia obtained EU membership first, it would have the right to use its veto power against other Balkan countries, including Albania, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Demographic and Economic Concerns
The demographic and economic landscapes of the Balkan countries also play a crucial role in their likelihood of EU membership. For Serbia, demographics and economic challenges present significant obstacles. The departure of young people due to economic hardships in countries like Bulgaria and Croatia is a worrisome trend. If Serbia were to join the EU, this could exacerbate these issues, creating a demographic disaster for a country already grappling with economic decline.
Concluding Thoughts
While it is difficult to predict the future of the EU membership process for Balkan countries, it is almost certain that the remaining six Balkan countries will join the EU as a group, following a precedent set by the accession of Slovenia and Croatia. The outcome of Serbia's EU membership application could significantly impact Albania and Kosovo, as well as other Western Balkan countries, making the group accession process a distinct possibility.
It is crucial for the Balkan countries to address the challenges they face, including resolving conflicts, improving governance, and promoting economic reforms. Only through these efforts can they hope to increase their chances of successful EU integration in the future.
References:
Albania Aims for EU Membership by 2025 EU soldiering on with Serbian accession talks, not lessener tensions Albania#39;s support for Kosovo urges EU to keep food embargo